Tropical Storm Jerry isn’t even a tropical depression yet, but could grow exponentially into Hurricane Jerry due to the warm Gulf waters and favorable upper-level winds. Here is the latest Jerry storm track:
At 5:00 PM today, the National Hurricane Center confirmed that Tropical Depression 10 will become Tropical Storm Jerry within 24 hours. Here is the actual forecast:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
2100 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER… INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 86.4W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES.PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB.
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
Latest Storm Update 9-21-07:
At 11:00 AM, Tropical Storm Jerry became an official tropical depression with this update from the National Hurricane Center. Basically, this storm is going to run parallel to the Gulf coastline for the next 24 hours, which means we’ll see lots of wind, rain, and onshore storms.
Here is a map of Jerry’s projected storm path highlighting which areas will receive tropical storm force winds:
Here are excerpts from the NHC’s 11:00 AM tropical depression 10 forecast:
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL LOW IN THE GULF HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY…WITH A WELL-DEFINED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND INTERMITTENT CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE CENTER.
THE TROPICAL INTENSITY MODELS ALL SHOW DEVELOPMENT TO A MID-RANGE TROPICAL STORM…
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE DEPRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON A TRACK NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE.
BECAUSE THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE…A LANDFALL LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT…BUT IN ANY EVENT THE CENTER OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT. MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS WELL-DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER.
Storm Track Update 9-21 at 7:30 AM:
Current low pressure reading for Jerry is 1005MB and the storm track is NW (NorthWest). Here is a picture from a weather satellite of Tropical Storm Jerry in the morning of Friday, September 21st:
Latest Tropical Storm Jerry updated forecast from the National Hurricane Center on 9-21-07 at 4:30 AM:
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
GMZ089-211530-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007.SYNOPSIS…LOW PRES OFF THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N84W 1005 MB WILL MOVE NW TO 29N87W THIS EVENING AND INLAND OVER LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI LATE SATURDAY.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW PRES TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE LANDFALL.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
Tropical Storm Jerry Update 9-20-07Â 10:30 PM:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
1. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES WEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA.
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING BUT BANDS OF HEAVY SQUALLS ARE FORMING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER…AND ARE ALREADY AFFECTING COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM…AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE PROMPTLY REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON FRIDAY.
Storm Jerry Latest Update 9-20-07:
What could quickly become Tropical Storm Jerry is currently 115 miles SSW (South SouthWest) of St. Petersburg Florida.
Tropical Storm Jerry storm track is currently WNW (West NorthWest) at a slow 5 knots. This slow movement means the storm will have plenty of time to strengthen tomorrow and the next day in the warm Gulf of Mexico waters.
Jerry’s storm path is aimed directly at the Louisiana and Alabama border. Here’s a satellite photo from the Hurricane Center of the projected path:
Here is what the National Hurricane Center reported at 4:00PM on 9-20-07:
Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
———————————————–
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED ABOUT 115 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA.
THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON…BUT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS YET THAT THE LOW HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER…THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
And that’s pretty much the latest update on Tropical Storm Jerry.
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