Tropical Storm Noel is shifting more northward as the storm approaches Cuba and remains a threat to the Bahamas as it continues to strengthen.
Here’s the latest projected path for Tropical Storm Noel on 10-29:
Latest update from the National Hurricane Center on 10-29:
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS NOT ABLE TO FIND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT 850 MB…BUT DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER LIKELY REFORMED AGAIN TO THE NORTH…CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF HAITI.THE DROPSONDE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN SINCE THIS AFTERNOON…AND IS NOW LIKELY AROUND 1002 MB.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/5. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF NOEL IS INFLUENCING THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY AND THE CENTER HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE CONVECTION.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO…AND WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC…THE TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.THE RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH…WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TURN NOEL NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD.
Latest storm update 10-28:
Tropical Storm Noel seen in satellite pictures below on 10-28-07 has gained intensity rapidly, but is moving very slowly North-Northwest toward Haiti at 4 knots with a low pressure of 996 mb.
The NHC 5:00pm update moves Tropical Storm Noel’s track a little more Northward as it approaches Florida as seen in this picture:
Here’ the National Hurricane Center on Noel’s gaining strength:
EVEN THOUGH NOEL HAS NOTABLY STRENGTHENED TODAY…IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH MORE INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR. THE AMOUNT OF INTERACTION WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN…BUT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES STRENGTHENING SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOSTLY OVER WATER IF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST VERIFIES.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT NOEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO PASSING OVER CUBA.
THEREAFTER…STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WIND SHEAR IMPOSED BY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE PRONUNCIATION FOR THE THIS STORM’S NAME IS NOL…WITH A LONG O SOUND AND JUST ONE SYLLABLE… OR EXACTLY LIKE THE WORD KNOLL.
Here’s a satellite view of Tropical Storm Noel on 10-28-2007:
This five-day projected storm path shows Tropical Storm Noel headed toward Florida’s Southeast coast near Miami & Ft. Lauderdale.
Here’s the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center on 10-28:
TROPICAL STORM NOEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
215 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007…NOEL BECOMES 14TH NAMED STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF RANMA… SANTIAGO DE CUBA…AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 215 PM EDT…1815Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES…235 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.
NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH…8 KM/HR. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…TAKING THE CENTER OF NOEL NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI TONIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM…MAINLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 996 MB…29.41 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA… SOUTHEASTERN CUBA…AND JAMAICA…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 215 PM EDT POSITION…16.5 N…71.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB.
This link from the National Hurricane Center displays a time lapse view of the storm track for Noel and the upper level winds steering this huge storm system:
This is the current satellite view of Noel in a time-lapse loop.
Note: These satellite images are large and the loop contains the most recent 15 images, so it’s real slow to load on dial-up connections…
Here’s another satellite photo on 10-28 showing wind & rain:
Next update on the storm track from the National Hurricane Center is at 5:00PM EST.
And that’s it for the latest update on Tropical Storm Noel.
Tags: hurricane noel, national hurricane center, tropical storm, tropical storm noel
October 3rd, 2007 at 9:03 am
That is one big storm! Wish it would send a little rain up our way in Alabama! This drought has been just awful hard on everything and everybody…
October 28th, 2007 at 4:50 pm
When is tropical storm noel gonna hit florida?
May 24th, 2009 at 8:27 pm
Interesting read thank you, I’ve subscribed to your feed, keep up the good work.